By: Maeve Hushman, Staff Writer
Since we arrived in the New Year, the Avs have had a 15-0-1 record and have a home winning streak of 18 home games. They were the first team to hit 30 wins, are the top of the league, and continue to get praise from hockey pundits around the media. So, let’s take a look at the Avalanche’s January.
Things to fix: The Avalanche in a lot of their most recent games have spent the first two periods behind on the score sheet or have blown a lead and had to come back. Now, because this team is as offensively deep as it is, they can pretty reliably out score their problems. However, it isn’t a good strategy in general. Look at the Edmonton Oilers, who started the season one of the best teams in the league rarely scoring the first goal and now are rapidly dropping in the standings. Relying on the offense to constantly bail you out is not a dependable strategy. It all goes back to the Avalanche’s inability to play a full 60 minutes of hockey. They either start dominant, then drop off, blow the lead, and then fight back (like in the game against the Wild) or they start slow and have to come back in the second half of the game.
The Avalanche have the best PDO in the league right now and a higher than normal shooting percentage (per JFreshHockey). Since the Avalanche are scoring at a much higher rate than expected, it means that their PDO is high. PDO has to do with luck, so it always regresses back to the mean as does high shooting percentage. All of that is just a fancy way of saying that the offense is not always going to score at this rate.
The Avalanche dominate when they get the other team to play their game, but sometimes they fall into the trap of playing the game of the opposing team. The Avalanche are all about speed and offense, while other teams want to slow down the game which makes the Avalanche more susceptible to making mistakes. In their rematch against the Leafs, for the first half the Leafs controlled the game and forced the Avalanche to play the way they wanted. When the Avs started to come back they forced the Leafs to play their game. No one plays the Avalanche’s game better than the Avs.
Net front defense continues to be a problem and nowhere was that seen more than the game against the Kraken. Two of the goals scored by the Kraken in that game were scored at the net front. The Avalanche need to get better at moving players out of the net front. So many times players are allowed time in space in front of the Avs net and they either score or they are used as a screen which also leads to goals against. In the playoffs, goals are scored in front of the net as games get played tighter and more defensively stringent. If the net front is left undefended, they will feel it most in those tight playoff situations.
Nathan MacKinnon was injured in the Bruins game by Taylor Hall and will need to have nose surgery. He will miss the All-Star game but hopefully be back in the line up after the All-Star break is over. MacKinnon has had horrible injury luck this season. He was just starting to heat back up before this hit by Hall. However, losing MacKinnon shouldn’t hurt the Avs too much because of the way the rest of the line up has been
Positives: Honestly, everything else. This team is an absolute powerhouse that always finds ways to win. MacKinnon looks like he forces the game to his will. The whole first line look like world beaters and with the rate that they are scoring they probably are. Nazem Kadri continues to be on fire. Everyone on this team is playing their part and helping this team get to victory. Despite the concerns brought up in the last section, this team is almost completely perfect.
The Avalanche’s offense has been lethal. It is deep and prolific, constantly able to bail the Avalanche out at every turn and this goes beyond the forward group. Cale Makar has been unreal and will be going to the All-Star game. He is generating offense and creating more scoring threats for the Avalanche, which should help them from regressing too much when their PDO goes back down to the mean. The Avs D-core has looked incredible lately, which it is. It saves the Avs when the passes to nowhere start becoming a prevalent problem in the game.
One plus of the Avalanche’s continued comeback victories is that it shows mental toughness and resilience. They keep fighting and do not give up no matter the score. That determination keeps them competitive. It is a good sign when it comes to the mindset of the Avs, they won’t let things get them discouraged. They will always keep fighting.
Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz have both looked incredible in net. Francouz has had two shutouts in the past few games and Kuemper made JFreshHockey’s list of statistically best goalies this season so far. That goaltending tandem has looked shaky at times but is coming into their own and have played a series of strong games.
Conclusion:The Avalanche are the best team in the league hands down, but they are also riding a wave of high PDO and unreal offense. No team is 100% perfect, the Avalanche come pretty close. If they keep up this tenacity, resilience, and ability to find a way then they will be in good shape to win the President’s Trophy again this year.